Teddy Bridgewater, the Carolina Panthers, and what to expect in 2020
If there is one player in the NFL that I do not envy, it’s new Panthers’ quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The moment the former Minnesota starter and New Orleans backup steps foot in Bank of America Stadium next year, no doubt to the iconic fire show that Cam Newton was introduced to for the better part of a decade, the comparisons and criticisms will start to fly as a polarized and deeply hurt fanbase grapples with the reality that Cam Newton really is gone.
A quick search for responses on the Panthers twitter page shows just what Teddy Bridgewater is entering. The departure of Cam Newton and the perceived treatment of both he and Greg Olsen by Carolina’s new management has left behind a confused and outraged fanbase that so far has not been shy about sharing those feelings.
Of course, it isn’t Teddy’s fault that Carolina kept Cam Newton’s status with the team hazy for months, leaving an already antsy fan base even more on edge as his fate hung in the balance. It’s not his fault that Carolina decided not to move on from Cam well before free agency to prevent any awkwardness or confusion. And it’s certainly not his fault that Cam’s departure went as awfully as it did as a result, leaving behind plenty of hard feelings.
Ultimately, the atmosphere and culture currently being created in Charlotte falls on Matt Rhule, Marty Hurney and David Tepper. But Bridgewater will inevitably be the recipient of much of the pent up emotions come September as fans look to unload their anger on someone. He just shouldn’t be the target.
Gaining respect from fans will be an uphill battle
$63 million is enough to make a lot of bad things seem okay. Teddy will rest easy at night knowing he’s got a good paycheck coming each week now as a result of his stellar play in relief of Drew Brees last season. But life will be much easier if he can endear himself to the Carolina faithful.
The sudden shift from an electric and dominant personality to a more reserved and quiet figure in Bridgewater is going to be a process for fans who are used to the energy Cam provided on a weekly basis.
Ultimately, Bridgewater’s problem is that he will be linked to the Cam Newton fiasco that just unfolded before our eyes.
Encouragingly, most fans are not aiming their vitriol towards Bridgewater himself. However, that still doesn’t mean that Bridgewater is going to just walk in and win over Carolina’s hearts and minds from day one. The easiest and fastest way to gain that respect is to develop into one of the top ten QBs in the league just as Newton did once upon a time. That is well outside any realistic expectations, however; Bridgewater should be solid as a starter, but he has never thrown more than 14 touchdowns in a season and is largely getting paid based off his five game stretch from last year in which he used New Orleans’ elite offense to post starting caliber numbers. He has a mediocre touchdown to interception ratio over his career, and averages barely over 200 yards passing per game. The fact that those five games last year are what is determining much of his value is reason for some concern as well. Remember when everyone thought that Kyle Allen was a franchise quarterback after 5 games in Carolina last year? Allen is now a Redskin; be wary of small sample sizes.
Bridgewater will almost certainly be better than Allen, though, most glaringly in the area of ball security; Allen had a good arm but his touch was highly inconsistent, often leading to picks, and he had a major fumbling issue that never got fixed. Carolina getting a fifth round pick for him from Washington was amazing value, one very good move this offseason in an otherwise bleak one.
If Carolina was going to go the free agency route, Bridgewater was at least a safer option than Jameis Winston, Nick Foles, Marcus Mariota and possibly even Philip Rivers at this stage in his career as well, all of whom were other available passers to choose from. Bridgewater is an accurate passer who has great timing on his throws, excellent touch and rarely makes mistakes that lead to turnovers. He is not an upgrade on a healthy Cam, however, which now appears to be the case after he passed a physical last week in Atlanta.
A healthy Newton is a superior athlete who can be the focal point of an offense in a way Bridgewater cannot; defenses have to adjust to account for the myriad of ways Cam can hurt them both through the air and the ground. Cam has elite arm strength, and although his accuracy is much maligned he also has largely played in schemes that call for deep shots down the field, dropping his completion percentage some due to the higher level of difficulty. Cam did struggle with short and intermediate range accuracy at times, but he showed that he could adjust and improve when he completed over 67% of his throws in Norv Turner’s system in 2018. He was good at largely avoiding turnovers; his 2.7% interception rate isn’t elite by any means, but its competent, and given his other talents that was usually enough for him to get by.
Even so, Bridgewater will certainly provide starting quality quarterback play and should give D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel (assuming he is not traded) and the newly acquired Robby Anderson plenty of opportunities to make big run after the catch (RAC) plays. There are still plenty of unknowns with Bridgewater, however, including how well he will play over the course of a whole season and how much more can he really grow as a passer.
Regardless of how Teddy turns out, it is imperative for the fanbase to give him a fair chance early on. Teddy will not be an issue off the field; he has always been lauded for his character, hard work and level-headed approach. And I do anticipate him to be good enough to raise doubt that Carolina should draft a QB next year, even in the year of Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. But he simply will not be Cam, or anything close to it. Fans will have to reconcile with that.
Teddy isn’t responsible for this mess, the front office is
The decision to move on from Cam was always going to anger segments of the fan base, but the method of his release would prove to be the determining factor of how bad the fallout would be.
Dave Tepper and his newly constructed staff are not off to a good start in the public relations department following the retirement of Luke Kuechly and the cutting of both Greg Olsen and Cam Newton all in just this calendar year. There is a correct way to transition from one era to the next; brutally cutting ties with franchise legends in the name of progress and expecting fans to understand and move on is not practical or recommended.
Other teams have felt pain in transitions as well, so this is certainly not new. The Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay shift got heated for a time, but having Aaron Rodgers become one of the greatest quarterbacks of his generation helped sooth those ill feelings. Indianapolis moving on from Peyton Manning was a masterclass in how to professionally say goodbye to a legend by releasing him; respect was kept on both sides, and the worst fans had to deal with was the grieving that comes with losing a local legend, rather than questioning their team’s ethics and morals like what fans of the Panthers are grappling with.
Unfortunately, Carolina is becoming a cautionary tale for how not to move on from franchise icons. Cam and Greg Olsen have both felt betrayed this offseason, Steve Smith Sr. famously said that there would be “blood and guts everywhere” the next time he played Carolina after Dave Gettleman cut him in 2013, and even running back DeAngelo Williams left feeling disrespected and hurt by the franchise that he helped build into a contender in the 2000s. Leaving on good terms with its biggest stars does not seem to be a quality Carolina possesses, even before David Tepper took over.
Teams with proven success and trust built up can pull off cold-hearted moves by defending them as “business decisions” or “what was best for the team.” New England, renowned for their ruthless and business-like approach to roster construction, routinely underpays their stars then moves on before they get too expensive in order to return value on them. For most teams the consistent rotating door of talented players leaving would cause unrest, but in New England it has become the Patriot Way; a strategy that desperate teams have tried to copy for years to no avail, mostly due to the small issue that finding Tom Brady in the sixth round and landing a coach/GM like Bill Belichick is pretty hard to replicate.
Carolina doesn’t yet have the level of credibility to just cast aside superstars and move on without suffering severe backlash. New England has 6 titles using that strategy; Carolina has none, and has only appeared in two Super Bowls in their 25 year existence. They are either calculating that their strategy will work in the long haul and that it is better to ask for forgiveness than permission from fans, or they weren’t expecting the backlash to be this bad following their moves. Let’s all hope for the sake of the franchise it is the former, not the latter.
What fans should realistically expect from Bridgewater and the Panthers in 2020
Opinions are split on what to expect from Teddy Bridgewater and the 2020 Panthers. Some seem to believe that he will be a franchise savior; a better pure passer than Cam who will give D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and the newly acquired Robby Anderson better chances to make plays. Most seem to believe he is merely a stopgap until Carolina inevitably drafts a quarterback of the future in the 2021 draft.
Realistically speaking, Bridgewater likely falls somewhere in between those two worlds. While Cam’s accuracy has long been criticized (he has only broken 60% on completions three times in his career), Cam is a better thrower than he often gets credit for, so long as he is healthy. Cam’s shoulder and foot issues in the past few years has possibly compromised some of that, but assuming health isn’t an issue it is likely he could reclaim some of the 2015 magic that launched him to an MVP trophy. (By the way, his top receivers in that 2015 season? Greg Olsen, Corey “Philly” Brown, Tedd Ginn and Jericho Cotchery. Anyone who says Cam can’t play QB in the league needs to run back footage from that year; he has undoubtedly had consistency issues with accuracy and moving on from him was defensible in theory, but Cam belongs somewhere in the league. And yes, he’s better than Jameis.)
Bridgewater will provide more consistent accuracy than Newton and decision making that is at least on par with Cam’s. But big plays and huge numbers aren’t Bridgewater’s strong-suit, and in the limited footage we have on him he seems to need a strong offensive unit built around him to fully realize his potential. Minnesota had Adrian Peterson, the best back in the world at the time, for Bridgewater to run play-actions through; probably the best gift a young passer could get. In New Orleans, he worked with Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, a sturdy offensive line and Sean Payton; one of the best offensive minds in football. Drew Brees serving as a mentor doesn’t hurt, either. Carolina does boast Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and now Robby Anderson, but they have serious questions on the offensive line, and recent rumblings that Moore, Curtis Samuel or even Christian McCaffrey could be traded loom as threats to weaken his stable of weapons.
Carolina’s competition will make nothing easier next season. The NFC South division, already stout before this offseason, just became the toughest division in football maybe only outside of the NFC West. Atlanta boasts Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and now Todd Gurley, along with an improved defense after Dante Fowler Jr. signed on to replace Vic Beasley. New Orleans returns Drew Brees and just added Malcom Jenkins at safety and Emmanuel Sanders at wideout to bolster their weaponry without losing many key pieces, and we all know what Tampa Bay did.
Realistic expectations given Bridgewater’s game, Carolina’s weapons and the competition they face, should be no more than 5 to 6 wins tops. The absolute max I would expect is 8 wins, and that would likely require yet another Atlanta collapse or Tampa Bay falling beneath expectations as usual, although I feel Tom Brady probably has at least one more season of leading a team to the postseason left in him. That doesn’t mean Bridgewater is doomed to a poor season or that the team won’t have exciting moments, it will just be hard for a team in flux sporting a brand new coach, a brand new system and a brand new quarterback to compete against such stiff competition within their own division.
In regards to Bridgewater’s performance, given past seasons and what his skillset will allow him to do, I am expecting something in the range of 3,600 yards, 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. There is nothing wrong or shameful about those numbers, and he could very well exceed those, but it will be important for Carolina’s fans to remember that Bridgewater is more than likely not going to blossom into Tom Brady in front of our very eyes. He will be an effective quarterback that keeps the offense on track, and won’t make many mistakes with the ball in his hands. For a team with McCaffrey and D.J. Moore on offense, that should be enough to create some exciting moments. The issue of course will be whether he is protected well enough to do his job, and whether the defense will be able to stop anyone from running them over (there is a very real possibility Carolina’s defense will rank among the worst in football next year, which will make watching them try to stop Brees, Brady or Ryan next year painfully ugly.)
Carolina is slated to have a difficult year by any metric, making Bridgewater’s job even harder. And in a year where fans will be closely monitoring every move the team makes following the extreme shake-up this offseason, Bridgewater could be in for a rough ride in his first year at Carolina’s helm. Whether or not he weathers that storm will be the ultimate determiner if he is the Panther’s solution moving forward, or just a stopgap until the real thing arrives. Either way, he deserves support from the fans. Let’s all hope he at least gets that.
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